The Nigerian military has six weeks to do what it has failed to accomplish in six years — turn the tide against the Islamist militant group Boko Haram.
That is the timeframe Nigeria's national security adviser gave to the electoral commission to convince it on Saturday to postpone presidential and legislative elections scheduled for February 14 until March 28.
If the military fails in its task it may request further delays. But that would threaten to undermine confidence in Africa's largest economy, which has already been damaged by falling oil prices and a weakening currency.
"Public perception is that an additional six weeks is unlikely to yield a significant improvement in the security outlook," Manji Cheto, the London-based vice-president at consulting firm Teneo Intelligence, said on Monday
"If another poll delay occurs, the chances of social unrest turning highly disruptive will significantly increase," he said.
While Nigeria's oil-rich south and emerging middle class have attracted investment in the past decade, the failure to stamp out Boko Haram is undermining the state's ability to guarantee basic law and order in a country of more than 170-million people and as many as 250 ethnic groups.
Critics of the postponement say President Goodluck Jonathan's ruling People's Democratic Party is seeking more time to thwart a surge in support for his main opponent Muhammadu Buhari, a 72-year- old northern Muslim backed by a united opposition that is gaining support in the predominantly Christian south.
Mr Buhari, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, said on Sunday that he felt "disappointment and frustration", and warned that further postponements would not be tolerated. He urged his supporters to remain calm.
"Any act of violence can only complicate the security challenges in the country and provide further justification to those who would want to exploit every situation to frustrate the democratic process in the face of certain defeat at the polls," he said.
The spiralling violence in Nigeria's northeast and an almost 50% decline in prices for oil, its main export, since June are tempering investor appetite for an economy that has expanded more than 5% annually over the past four years.
Nigeria's naira has tumbled 17% against the dollar in the past six months, the most among 24 African currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange all-share index is down 41% over the past six months in dollar terms, the second-worst performer in the world, after Ukraine.
Mr Buhari has a reputation of being tough on corruption and military incompetence.
(Bloomberg)
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